February 23, 2022

Vladimir Putin, who was still open to diplomatic solutions yesterday, gave the order to invade Ukraine at dawn on 24 February. For NATO “this is the most dangerous moment for European security for generations”. 

While Europe and the United States announce sanctions against Russia , the eyes of the world are focused on a thin portion of territory that separates the “puppet republics” of Donetsk and Lugansk, as Josep Borrell defined them yesterday , and the territory of controlled Donbass. from Kiev. It is the crossing of this red line by the troops of Moscow that will determine the future of the crisis in one direction or another and the signs, at the moment, are not encouraging: after having ordered his army to enter the Republics of Lugansk and of Donetsk ” for the maintenance of peace “, Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday asked and obtained the green light of the Federal Security Councilfor sending troops abroad . The entry of the Russian army into Ukraine will depend on the situation on the ground , the president specifies, and therefore is a concrete possibility. Meanwhile, the Moscow Foreign Ministry has recalled the entire diplomatic staff serving in Ukraine to their homeland. Today is “the most dangerous moment in European security in a generation,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.inviting us not to be under any illusions. “We think the story is not over”, EU High Representative Borrell echoed: “The sanctions have no miraculous effects. They are not like a red light on the street ”, but“ we preferred to maintain a deterrent capacity to respond to new actions by Russia. And we fear that there will be new actions by Russia ”.

The beginning of an invasion?

While Vladimir Putin declares that the Minsk Agreements “no longer exist” and does not exclude the entry of Russian troops into the country, on the other hand he keeps the door open to diplomacy . “Moscow – let the Kremlin know – is still ready to find diplomatic solutions” to the crisis. But in the chancelleries it is clear that the events of the last 48 hours have definitely cooled any momentum: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has canceled the meeting in Geneva with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov , scheduled for Thursday. In light of Moscow’s recent actions, the head of diplomacy in Washington said that “it no longer makes sense to hold talks with the Russian counterpart”. Afterhours of indecision on how to interpret the turnaround in Moscow, yesterday evening American President Joe Biden defined the Russian invasion in Ukraine ” the beginning of an invasion ” that could reach “as far as Kiev”, and announced a series of sanctions coordinated with the European Union and the United Kingdom. The measures include sanctions on Russia’s foreign debt and on several oligarchs close to the Kremlin. But according to various sources , Washington is coordinating a ban on exports of high-tech materials and microchips with partner countries in Southeast Asia , to hit the war arsenal and Russian industry at the same time

Gas: the elephant in the room?

In alignment with Washington, the European allies are frantically confronting the issue of sanctions to be adopted against Russia. If Germany has finally put the ‘nuclear option’ on the table by announcing the suspension of permits for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline , the 27 have approved a first package of ‘targeted’ sanctions and threaten further and more serious measures in the event of a further Russian advance. But the European position is wavering when it comes to sanctioning the sale of hydrocarbons , which accounts for more than a third of Moscow’s budget. Indeed, Brussels has not only not decreased its dependence on Russian gas as it had promised itself to do after Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea , but has actually seen it rise. If in 2010, Europe depended on Russia for 26% of its natural gas supplies, this percentage now reaches 42%, not counting shipments of liquefied gas. “Energy is the big elephant in the room ” when it comes to the EU’s ability to impose sanctions on Russia, Maria Shagina , an expert at the Finnish Institute for International Affairs, told Politico. Yet, never as in this historical phase would Brussels need to show itself strong to guarantee itself a place at the tables that matter. “Talking about nuclear options in terms of sanctions can more or less balance the discussion”,Francesco Giumelli, of the University of Groningen, tells Politico again : “If someone masses 130 thousand soldiers and you show up saying: ‘I will stop selling you Gucci bags’, you are sending [the wrong signal] – he explains – it is like showing up armed with a knife to a fire fight “.

Defend Suwalki?

As the escalation at the gates of Ukraine monopolizes international attention, another move by the Kremlin with potentially explosive consequences goes almost unnoticed. Moscow has decided to keep its troops in Belarus even after the end of the joint military exercises, which ended on February 20, indefinitely . In the shadow of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, “we are witnessing more or less an annexation of Belarus, at least militarily, by Russia”, explained Austrian Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg . The issue of Belarusian sovereignty greatly alarms the Baltic countrieswho asked and obtained to evaluate sanctions against Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus for having made its territory available to Putin to threaten Ukraine. Furthermore, if the Kremlin attacks the border area between Poland and Lithuania squeezed between the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, known as the ‘Suwalki corridor’, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would risk being isolated from the rest of the allied territory.. While it is unlikely that Moscow will decide to move troops to isolate the three republics, the consolidation of its presence in Belarus responds to a strategy of strengthening control in the region. For now, Baltic officials are at least as anxiously watching Belarus as Ukraine. “Everything is on the table: hybrid provocations, annexation of Belarus by keeping the troops there permanently and creating points of tension near the Suwalki corridor” – observes Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuanian foreign minister – “it is very difficult to predict the outcome of all this, we must be ready and have answers for everything “.

Copyright: ISPI