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The strategic dynamics of Somalia

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Somalia’s geostrategic location will continue to attract the attention of world leaders, more so the powerful countries of the USA, China and Russia. India, on the other side of the Indian Ocean, a neighbor, is itself a potential maritime nation and is building up its presence in the region, more to rival China, its Asian competitor, which has shown itself in the region. The Chinese naval presence in Djibouti has stirred many other countries to the potential danger of losing out to China.

It is where Somalia, as a country with the longest coast in the Horn of Africa States region, needs to make more efforts to deploy its geostrategic location and especially with the new America under Trump 2.0 that has just come on board.

Somalia is still in a recovery phase and is walking clumsily towards re-emerging as a viable country. Years of turmoil and chaos have left major scars. These involve mostly divisive clan-based power structures, driven to a large extent, by forces which do not wish the country well.

The United States is the only major power that has presence in the country and Somalia should take advantage of the opportunity to deepen its relations to go beyond the military and security sphere to involve American corporations investing in the vast untapped resources of the country.

Oil and gas, the long and beautiful beaches of the country which can be developed into a vast tourism haven, port infrastructures and transportation through rail and road to the rest of Africa from Somali ports would give both Somalia and America, a major economic boost.

Rival countries such as China and Russia and even India do not  have such presence in the country at present and nothing rules out Somalia building relationship with them as well, as long as there is a balance and a worked-out equilibrium in the relations with all countries.

While these could be possible, it would be more difficult to dealing with the emerging powers which have interest in the country. These include the Arab countries of the Gulf, Türkiye, Egypt and even the East Africa Community, with Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania at the forefront. They all want to benefit from the Somali ATM. They and especially the African, all see  Somalis as Automatic Teller Machines, despite being described as the poor country if Africa

Somalia will need to diversify its economic partnerships and especially when it needs to tap its untapped resources. It should strengthen its relations with the USA and Türkiye. Türkiye is currently a key country in economic cooperation, and which is involved in managing the airport and seaport of Mogadishu, in addition to the offshore exploration for oil and gas in Somali waters. This does not negate the establishment of economic cooperation with American cooperations and especially the larger hydrocarbon and petroleum companies.

It is understood in Somalia that despite the fact that though most pundits talk about the end of oil and gas industries, this is more related to running out of it than replacing it with other sources of energy. Most people believe that oil and gas is only used for energy, but it is also the raw material for most consumer goods people use today, including clothing, furniture, bodyworks of transportation infrastructures, medical equipment including tubes, jars and other delicate instruments and still other many other industries, such as paved roads.

Petroleum is not only the gold of yesterday but all the gold, the platinum, the camel, the cows, the wheat, the fish and all the other things people found important in the past put together. It is an important and a significant part of the world of today. It is and has been for years the cause of wars and  played major roles in peace processes.

It is a major factor in international diplomacy and remains an international issue. Perhaps and unknown to Somalis, it is also one of the main reasons, that their country, Somalia, has been in this state of being a country without being a country for years now. It is reported to hold vast quantities of hydrocarbons.

The new American administration is not wrong is pursuing the interests of America. These, we believe, should include working with countries that were ruined by bad policies of the past and help them re-emerge including Somalia. Such proactive and strategic approach will help in exploiting the resources of Somalia for the benefit of both countries. A success in this respect will, no doubt, help the wheel of change in Africa towards the United States of America.

Dr. Suleiman Walhad

Dr. Suleiman Walhad writes on the Horn of Africa economies and politics. He can be reached at suleimanwalhad@yahoo.com.

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