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The Somali clan revolution threatens the future of the jihadist movement

Clans’ support for the Somali army confuses and weakens the jihadists

The Somali government is using all means of war to defeat the terrorists from all regions of the country.
Tuesday 20/09/2022

 

Analysts agree that the Somali government is trying to invest what it calls the popular revolution against the jihadist youth movement in some federal states to be able to defeat the terrorist organization and contain its activity in the south and center at least.

According to analysts, several factors contributed to the outbreak of an armed clan revolution against the youth movement in some federal states.

Among these factors is the humanitarian crisis experienced by the citizens, in addition to strict orders and illegal royalties imposed on them in this difficult humanitarian circumstance, not to mention the demolition of the few wells, which constitute the only source of water for the villagers, in light of the severe drought that hits the country.

President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud praised, in a press conference held on the twelfth of this September, the armed tribal revolution that resulted from the accumulation of attacks carried out by terrorists against citizens and their property.

Any victory over the youth movement depends on the strategy that the government will adopt to exploit the gift of the clans

President Sheikh Mahmoud indicated that the government will use all means of war to defeat the terrorists in all regions of the country.

The US embassy in the capital Mogadishu commented on the security operations taking place in some federal states, saying that “the rise of the population in the face of al-Shabab, with the support of government and federal forces, will liberate Somalia from the destruction caused by extremist violence.”

local federal states; Hirshabeli, southwestern Somalia, and Galmudug, security operations between government forces and armed clan militias on the one hand, and Al-Shabab militants on the other.

These confrontations led Al-Shabab to lose more than 20 towns that were under its control, according to the local information ministry.

The outburst of the armed tribal revolution coincided with the government preparing to launch a war against al-Shabab militants, which puts the movement in a weak position to confront two different war fronts at the same time.

Abdul Qadir Hajar, an analyst at the Sahn Research Center, said, “The security situation in which Al-Shabab is living at this time constitutes a valuable security opportunity for the government, if it invests these opportunities in a strategic and effective way.”

“The armed tribal revolution against al-Shabab fighters in some federal states showed the weaknesses of their security capabilities,” Hajar added.

He explained that Al-Shabaab militants showed their inability to confront “this revolution, which erupted as a result of their strict practices, and the heavy taxes imposed on the villagers.”

The political analyst pointed out that “the current government security strategy to support clan militias changes the course of the usual war between government forces and al-Shabab fighters.”

And he indicated that “the armed clans can reach areas that the government forces cannot reach, and they can target young men in their own homes.”

Hajar considered that “the tribal revolution is a rare opportunity for the government that may not be repeated, because it stems from the accumulation of terrorist attacks over the past 15 years.”

He added that this revolution “reflects the extent of the people’s readiness to curb the practice of terrorists, and the government should support these militias militarily.”

 

An open war on terrorism
An open war on terrorism

 

Armed clan alliances continue in the states of Hirshabelle, Galmudug and southwestern Somalia, to confront Al-Shabaab militants and liberate them from their areas of residence. While the movement was desperate to put down this revolution by force through mass killing, intimidation and the demolition of water sources in those regions.

University professor Ahmed Youssef says that “this revolution is a result of the accumulation of pressures on the citizens, and a reaction from the behavior of the youth fighters.”

He pointed to the imposition of royalties on citizens by al-Shabaab militants, especially in this humanitarian circumstance, in which half of the population suffers from a severe humanitarian crisis as a result of the drought that hit the country.

On whether this tribal revolution will push the movement to withdraw from those regions, Youssef considered that it “will be a fatal blow to the youth.”

He explained, “Not only to withdraw, but to remove their influence within the tribes, as they were practicing their activities comfortably through their elements, but after the revolution, it will not be easy for them.”

Al-Shabaab fighters arrested dozens of villagers belonging to armed clans in Walimudug and took them to unknown locations.

And he added, “Al-Shabaab fighters were practicing a policy of intimidation to undermine the ability of any clan to respond, but because the different clans’ fronts were opened to them, they were not currently able to quell the revolution.”

The political analyst pointed out that “this led to it receiving successive losses on the battlefields, which will negatively affect its qualitative operations against government forces and the military centers of the African forces (Atmis).”

According to tribal sources, al-Shabab fighters arrested dozens of villagers belonging to armed clans in Walidug, and took them to unknown places, to use them as a pressure factor against those tribes. However, this step did not change the course of the revolution, but rather inflamed it further, as those clans announced their readiness to liberate their areas from al-Shabab fighters.

For the youth, the tribe constitutes a suitable environment for passing their agendas and living in it without any security persecutions, and with the knowledge of the tribe’s residents.

This situation continues as long as the tribe is safe and not targeted by terrorist operations carried out by Al-Shabaab, which often target workers in government agencies.

“The tribal revolution taking place in some federal states indicates that the youth movement has begun to emerge from the cloak of the tribes,” says political analyst Abdoon Abdi.

Abdi added that this would “cause many repercussions for the youth movement, in the next stage, especially in the face of the war that the government declared against it.”

He added that “the tribe factor was one of the main reasons that contributed to the survival of al-Shabab fighters over the past period and their steadfastness against government and African forces.”

Analysts agree that any victory over Al-Shabaab in the current battle depends on the strategy that the government will adopt to exploit this gift and adapt it to the government’s benefit

The original source of this article is alarab-co-uk

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