In a crisis that threatens its very existence, General al-Burhan’s forces (SAF) has turned to foreign mercenaries and Ethiopian Tigray forces to compensate for a critical manpower shortage.
This is no longer mere speculation, but a tangible reality supported by field reports and independent sources.
With this reliance on external forces, the SAF’s ability to carry out military operations is increasingly at risk, raising significant questions about its future and its capacity to maintain itself as an independent fighting force.
Decline of Sudan’s Military Strength
In previous decades, the SAF was one of the largest in the region, with a strength of around 200,000 soldiers at the turn of the century. However, recent years have seen a dramatic decline in its ranks, with estimates suggesting the SAF now comprises only 50,000 to 70,000 soldiers.
Several factors contribute to this severe reduction:
Heavy Combat Losses: The SAF has suffered significant casualties since the start of the civil conflict, with reports suggesting over 20,000 soldiers killed.
Desertions and Defections: A surge in defections, especially among seasoned officers and combatants, has left a critical leadership void within the ranks.
Declining Recruitment and Training: Ongoing political and economic instability has drastically reduced recruitment efforts, leaving the army unable to replace its losses at a sufficient pace.
Resorting to Mercenaries: A Forced Necessity or a Long-Term Strategy?
Faced with this stark manpower shortage, the SAF has increasingly relied on foreign mercenaries to fill the gaps. These mercenaries, hailing from various countries, include fighters from West Africa, East Africa, and beyond:
The Sudanese military has enlisted mercenaries from various regions to compensate for its manpower shortage. West African fighters, primarily from Chad, Mali, and Niger, many of whom have previous experience in armed groups or regional militias, have been brought in. Additionally, mercenaries from Eritrea have joined the ranks, lured by promises of financial rewards. Reports also indicate that fighters from the Middle East and Central Asia, skilled in unconventional warfare, have been recruited to support the Sudanese forces.
It is estimated that between 5,000 and 10,000 mercenaries have been deployed to support the SAF, stationed at strategic locations to bolster manpower.
Tigray Forces: A Military Alliance Born of Necessity
In addition to mercenaries, the SAF has also relied on Ethiopian Tigray forces, recognized for their combat expertise following years of conflict with the Ethiopian central government. Tigray fighters are known for their proficiency in executing complex military operations, making them a valuable asset for the SAF in recent battles.
Why the SAF Relies on Tigray Forces
Tigray fighters bring extensive military expertise, having fought prolonged battles against the Ethiopian army, making them veterans in both conventional and guerrilla warfare. The Tigray forces are also known for their high level of organization and discipline, which enables them to conduct military operations with remarkable efficiency. Given the weakened state of the SAF, the only viable option was to rely on the Tigray forces to secure key victories on the battlefield.
Estimates suggest that between 3,000 and 7,000 Tigray fighters have joined the SAF, operating primarily at the frontlines.
Erosion of Sudanese Military Sovereignty
The SAF’s dependence on mercenaries and foreign forces is no longer a temporary tactic but a strategic necessity imposed by deteriorating conditions. Over time, this reliance has eroded the military’s sovereignty, as key decisions on combat operations are increasingly influenced by external forces.
Consequences of External Dependence
The SAF has increasingly lost its military independence, as its operations are now heavily influenced by foreign supporters. This reliance on mercenaries and external forces has placed a significant financial strain on the country, with costs running into the millions. Additionally, the involvement of non-Sudanese fighters has shifted the SAF’s methods of warfare, potentially affecting its long-term structure and military doctrine.
The SAF is no longer able to fight its battles independently. Faced with severe human and material losses, it has turned to external solutions to compensate for its deficiencies. As this approach persists, the army risks evolving from a national force to one heavily reliant on foreign entities, raising critical questions about its future and viability as an independent military power in Sudan.
The Sudantimes
