The Ethiopian government has accomplished what it promised its people regarding ending the fourth and final filling phase of the Renaissance Dam. With this step, the two downstream countries, especially Egypt, can no longer do anything except continue negotiations from which there is little hope.
The Ethiopian government has taken a big step toward transforming the Renaissance Dam project into a fixed reality on the ground and adhering to the conditions it had previously set, which makes any negotiating process with both Egypt and Sudan start from the status quo.
The announcement of the completion of the fourth and final filling stage on Sunday raised many question marks, as the average stockpile behind the Renaissance Dam reached about 42 billion cubic meters, while the total capacity reached 74 billion cubic meters.
Despite the many questions about stopping the filling process at the limits of 42 billion cubic meters, some saw it as a positive Ethiopian reference to the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, meaning that there is a possibility of a truce that can be used in the upcoming talks of understanding, especially since Addis Ababa provided evidence. It had good intentions and did not insist on persisting in the post-filling stages, at least for the time being.
Egyptian sources revealed that Ethiopia had achieved its main goals of the filling and operation processes unilaterally, and was able to impose its vision when it refused to abide by signing a binding agreement for the last period, and it would not harm it to reach a general agreement formula that preserves the gains it has achieved and meets part of the aspirations of Cairo and Khartoum.
The same sources added, in statements to The Arab Weekly, that Addis Ababa succeeded in implementing its project in the way it wanted, while Egypt or Sudan have no options but not to leave the negotiating table, because absence from it or boycotting it will not be feasible for both of them in light of the political and media uproar that accompanied the process. Promote to finish the fourth and last filling.
Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced, on his personal account on the X platform, the successful completion of the fourth and final mobilization process of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, saying, “We faced many challenges and were repeatedly forced to retreat. We faced an internal challenge and external pressures,” stressing that his country will accomplish what it pledged.
Delegations from Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan held meetings in Cairo on August 27 and 28 with the aim of reaching an agreement that takes into account the interests and concerns of the three countries, but they did not make tangible progress on contentious issues. On August 29, the Egyptian Ministry of Irrigation announced the end of the first round of tripartite negotiations on the Renaissance Dam, and that it did not result in tangible changes in Addis Ababa’s position, while Ethiopia announced hosting a second round this September, the date of which has not been determined.
Nader Noureddine, a professor of water resources at Cairo University, said, “Ethiopia’s announcement of the completion of the fourth filling does not affect the progress of the negotiations to be held in Addis Ababa, and that the agreement between the technical delegations of the three countries approved that the negotiation of the stage after the fourth filling, and deals with the following stages, besides Operational stages.
In a statement to The Arab Weekly, Noureddine stressed that Ethiopia is not obliged to make concessions during the upcoming negotiating rounds, and Addis Ababa is expected to inform both Cairo and Khartoum of the advance dates for filling in the coming times, and to agree on operating steps in a manner that does not constitute direct harm to the two countries and contributes to the status quo. Appropriate measures regarding filling dams and preparing for periods of decline in the Nile water level.
He pointed out that citizens in Egypt were not directly affected by the fourth filling, and that the water reserved in the High Dam Lake in southern Egypt was able to compensate for approximately 15 billion cubic meters that were reserved in the Renaissance Dam Lake. Cairo is committed to continuing its tireless efforts to reach “as soon as possible a binding legal agreement regarding the rules for filling and operating the dam in a manner that takes into account Egyptian interests and principles by preserving its water security and preventing damage to it, and achieving the benefit of the three countries.” Egypt has not identified effective mechanisms that could lead to this goal.
The Ethiopian Prime Minister and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi agreed on July 13, on the sidelines of a meeting hosted by Cairo for Sudan’s neighboring countries, to complete within four months the drafting of an agreement on filling and operating the dam.
Abiy Ahmed boasted that the project witnessed many challenges and succeeded in overcoming them, and he said on platform X, “There are many attempts to pull us back, but we had an internal challenge with external pressures. We endured everything that happened and reached this. We reached the top of the hill, not the end of the hill.” “I think we will complete what we have planned for the coming period. I would like to take the opportunity to pledge to continue supporting the dam until the end.”
Ethiopia was keen to confirm that it was not neutral about its political, technical and legal vision, and a spokesperson for its foreign ministry said a few days ago that the fourth filling of the dam is taking place according to the plans set, and his country is seeking to reach a common understanding that satisfies all parties. Addis Ababa also indicated that it will never give up its rights and interests in the waters of the Blue Nile River, and does not seek escalation with Egypt and Sudan.
◙ Addis Ababa succeeded in implementing the Renaissance Dam project in the way it wanted, while Cairo or Khartoum do not have options
The advisor to the Ethiopian Minister of Water and Energy, Mohamed Al-Arousi, stated that his country has been involved in the Renaissance Dam negotiations from the beginning, with the aim of reaching satisfactory solutions for the parties to the crisis. Pictures taken by some satellites revealed that Ethiopia finished the fourth filling of the Renaissance Dam last Friday evening, and it appeared that the water had reached the middle corridor of the dam, which crossed on Saturday to begin its journey towards Sudan and Egypt.
Until September 8, the amount of storage in the Renaissance Dam lake amounted to about 24 billion cubic meters at a level of 625 meters above sea level, equivalent to 50 percent of the annual average flow of the Blue Nile.
Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said at the meeting of Arab foreign ministers, which was held in Cairo on Wednesday, that his country looks forward to the Arab League’s continued support regarding the issue of the Renaissance Dam, expressing his rejection of the intransigent positions in light of the unilateral steps and the filling of the dam by Ethiopia.
Shoukry’s words about Addis Ababa’s lack of tendency to adopt the proposed middle solutions, which meet the demands and aspirations of the three countries, reflected the depth of frustration that the Egyptian negotiator would face when he sits at the negotiating table with his Ethiopian counterpart
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