American analyst Scott Friedman believes that globalization has been, and continues to be, a defining feature of our era. For decades, as the United States shifted to a service and information economy, cheap Chinese goods filled American markets. As shipping costs fell and manufacturing capacity abroad swelled, Americans gave up factory jobs at home for imported consumer goods. This was supposed to be the normal way of things, until that is no longer the case.

Friedman, a visiting fellow at the Crash Institute for Technology Diplomacy at Purdue University, and a former prominent political advisor to the US House of Representatives Homeland Security Committee, says in a report published by the American National Interest magazine, that the concern that began as a fringe chorus talking about “China hawks” and ringing alarm bells regarding the danger. Foreign production has become pivotal as a result of the global Corona pandemic, which clearly illustrated the fact that the competition of major powers is now at the forefront, not only of politics, but of trade as well.

This concern forced the boards of companies to realize that this competition will play its role in the commercial markets in an unprecedented way. The pillars of the consumer economy have been drawn into the fray as US political leaders, both Republican and Democratic, stress the growing need to decouple the US economy from that of China. The opinion of the street, and in many capitals around the world, was that the United States was leading the unconnected twenty-year experience through unrestricted economic relations.

“But what if the end of globalization has already begun in China?” Friedman asks.

He says that in light of rising global inflation, unstable economies continuing to suffer from the pandemic, and an upcoming demographic abyss, it seems reasonable for the Chinese government to take steps to support its domestic economy by building walls around it. In fact, we are already seeing evidence of this in certain sectors. Today, the world is aware of the Communist Party inviting companies into China with the promise of large-scale market opportunities, only to push for joint ventures, and then suddenly capping the share of foreign companies while backing up the local producers and manufacturers who They not only serve their local needs but also export and compete globally.

And with China looking inward, its leaders may come to realize that the global economy may not be keeping up with their goals. Policies such as the double cycle, which accelerates domestic autonomy by focusing on self-sufficiency first, with exports second, offers an opening toward what any gradual end to global trade as we know it might look like. Even though sweeping protectionism is not likely to end overnight, one can look to China’s serious requirements for the medical sector to see how slow the course of this decoupling can be.

Over the past year, local authorities in China have required Chinese medical companies to purchase from local supplies and limit the production of end-use medical equipment components to local Chinese companies. This is a momentous change for a market dominated by Western technology companies, which is believed to be one of the most profitable sectors of the global economy with an increasingly aging society. If these rules are imposed, foreign companies will be at the back of the queue for those who want to import from China, while also being excluded from effective participation in the Chinese market.

Although these steps are not likely to build a “great wall” around the world’s second largest economy, they may herald a major shift in the global economic system, which prioritizes local job opportunities and self-sufficiency over always cheap consumer goods. Predictors of deglobalization may be right, but they are just wrong about where it will begin. The United States and like-minded countries around the world should take note of the fact that globalization is fading, however, they should come to terms with the view that China may indeed be the main catalyst for it.

Source: alarab-co-uk