It is a long journey from the accusation of President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud in February 2024 during the Ordinary Session of the Executive Council of the African Union, when he alleged that he was prevented from entering the Headquarters of the AU in Addis Ababa by Ethiopian security forces, and that he was rescued by President Ismael Omar Guelleh of Djibouti, to yesterday, January 11th, 2025, when the President of Somalia was extended a warm welcome to Addis Ababa.
Abiy Ahmed’s message on “X” which read “I warmly welcome President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud of the Federal Republic of Somalia, on his working visit to Ethiopia.” Speaks out loudly on the event.The two countries have been at logger heads on the matter of the Somali sea and Ethiopia’s continuous and constant complaint of its need for access to a sea. The illegal MoU it signed with one of the regions of Somalia was considered by the latter as a transgression on its sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity. Despite the “Ankara Declaration” pressured and worked on by Türkiye, Ethiopia does not appear to have reversed its quest for taking part of Somalia’s territory and/or sea through a lease process, much like the Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, which was leased to the USA for a specific period and which still remains in its hands.
Many Somalis are accordingly wary of the visit of the President Mahmoud to the country which, in their minds, is working hard to dismantle it and balkanize it. During the long and continuing civil war of Somalia, Ethiopia played a nefarious role encouraging many regions to pull away from the center, which weakens Somalia. A country of one people, one language, one faith and one culture, has been turned into a bad lands region and according to many Somalis, Ethiopia played, despite its claims of helping the country, a bad hand in the process.
Many read the visit as an attempt to weaken the relationship between Somalia and Asmara and Cairo who recently signed a tripartite arrangement along with Mogadishu to look after each other in the boiling geopolitical situation and location of the region and in particular with the quest of Ethiopia to have access to Somalia’s sea.
Others read the visit as a game engineered by the President of Djibouti to weaken Asmara only and still others view the visit as Hassan selling out his country just to preserve his political career through a military, political and social support of Ethiopia as it maintains substantial presence in the country.
However, the Horn of Africa States region has been a volatile region for many years now, where alliances shift. A number of years ago, there was a tripartite arrangement between the countries of Somalia, Ethiopia and Eritrea. Today, the tripartite arrangements still exist but with Ethiopia being replaced by Egypt, a far-off country, mainly interested in the Nile waters and unmindful of the fate of the people of the region. In all these arrangements, Dibouti was always and still is the missing link in the potential Horn of Africa States region of the SEED countries (Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti).
Some major countries such as those which have failed in their relations with Africa are also reported to be pushing a wrong agenda for the region, including selling naval vessels to and training naval forces for Ethiopia, a country which is geographically landlocked and which does not have a sea. This appears to have been the major cause of the recent volatility in the region, which does not need hostilities of this nature.
Other regional powers have also used their resources to interfere in the region and more particularly Somalia, which they see as the weak link of the region. Their involvement appears to be aimed at controlling the ports of Somalia, the seas of Somalia and especially the very Horn of Africa, which separates the waters of the Gulf of Aden and the Somali Sea (the northern Indian Ocean) and link it with the Yemeni-held islands off the coast of Somalia. These activities pose major implications for the region.
It is reported that President Guelleh of Djibouti may have played a role in arranging the visit of the President of Somalia to Addis Ababa, which if true, could pose well for the region to coming closer together. President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud of Somalia has also been reported to be working on creating peace between Eritrea and Djibouti, two countries which have had disputes over a tiny space of ground in the border between the two countries.
Should such a closer relationship among the countries of the region materialize, it would have major implications not only for the region but also for others who have interest in the region from major powers to regional powers and seafaring nations.
Note the region would be in control of some 4,700 km of a coastal belt and over a million square kilometers of marine space in the form of Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) and hence a sizeable blue economy. The region overlooks the Indian Ocean/ Suez Canal waterway, which is reported to handle some 12 per cent of global trade and is the source of the Blue Nile which provides fresh water to millions of people in the countries of Sudan and Egypt.
The effect of the Houthi disruption would then be toned down, as it would have to face a major unified region on the other side of the sea, which disrupts its economic systems. Currently all the countries of the region only mind their individual interests irrespective to the damage that a disruption of the waterway brings to the development of the region. The possibilities of port, rail and road developments from the region to the rest of Africa is pushed back to the distant future, as each country of the region only works to manage its own external affairs both politically and economically.
A cooperation among the countries of the region, designed more like the European Union, with each country maintaining its sovereign and territorial integrity and working with others for the common good of the region, in terms of economic and political issues, and facing other regions of the world collectively and not on individual basis, would be good for the region. Note that tiny states like Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and others in the European Union have the same rights as the giants like Germany and France and Spain. Why shouldn’t the countries of the region work on the same basis?
Many of the major, middle and regional powers who are currently involved in the region would be better off should the region be peaceful, stable and settled instead of being volatile, disruptive and warring with each other and others.
It is where President Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud’s visit to Ethiopia, appears to change the equation, adding a fresh formula for the region where they can work together and settle issues on a common platform. Ethiopia does not need to be enticed by foreign forces to seek Somalia’s waters and seas or for that matter any other country’s waters. A Horn African States platform would probably attend to the Hobbesian fear of each country of the other (s).
