The multiplicity of mediations may serve to put pressure on the fighting parties in Sudan to accept a truce, but this will not prevent the renewal of fighting at any moment, especially in light of the army’s insistence on achieving victory on the ground before entering into any talks to resolve the crisis.
The situation in Sudan is preparing for the possibility of a breakthrough that would contribute to reaching an agreement on a cease-fire, and then committing to a real truce, more than a month after the clashes that erupted between the army and the Rapid Support Forces, which pushes towards a crowding out of African, Arab and international mediations to put pressure on the two parties.
On Wednesday, Youssef Ezzat, the political advisor to the Rapid Support Commander, welcomed the mediation of the state of South Sudan led by President Salva Kiir through the “IGAD” organization, pointing out that “the Rapid Support Forces believe that Juba is an ideal place for peace talks, and President Salva Kiir has a greater understanding of the crisis.” In Sudan in general, it has a role to play in stopping the war.” Ezzat’s remarks came at a time when the Jeddah talks, sponsored by Saudi Arabia and the United States, are still almost frozen and have not made much progress on the level of stabilizing the cease-fire.
The Arab Contact Group on Sudan held its first meeting in Jeddah, consisting of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Secretary-General of the Arab League, on the sidelines of the meeting of the Council of Arab Foreign Ministers, on Wednesday, and stressed the importance of reaching an immediate and sustainable cease-fire and dealing with the Sudanese crisis as an internal matter, and the pivotal role of neighboring countries. .
The Arab Group is interested in communicating with the Sudanese and international parties to work to address the causes of the crisis and to make all efforts to reach a complete and sustainable ceasefire. The multiplicity of mediation serves the issue of pressure on the two conflicting parties to accept the cease-fire, but it does not guarantee a radical solution to the crisis, and it may need integration to ensure that its objectives do not conflict, and the acceptance of any of them stems from the non-involvement of the parties based on them in the current conflict and the adoption of honest mediation. and neutral.
The Sudanese writer and political analyst, Shamael Al-Nour, said that regional initiatives for a solution, in their various and multiplicity, are not useful unless a major military development takes place on the ground, and that the Sudanese army will not accept real negotiation on a cease-fire as long as its field situation is not good, and the ability of mediation depends on not affecting the gains. each party.
In a statement to The Arab Weekly, she indicated that the mediations in which some regional parties participate are more capable of achieving a breakthrough, because they possess many pressure cards through which they can affect both parties, and the existence of a conflict in the positions of some forces that enter the mediation line may be beneficial than The direction of its direction to influence the party to which it tends.
The mediations adopted by several regional parties to reach a final agreement in Sudan were a major reason for the prolongation of the conflict, because the political and military forces used them to prevaricate before cooperation emerged between the tripartite mechanism that includes the United Nations, IGAD and the African Union, and between the Quartet consisting of the United States, Britain and the Emirates. And Saudi Arabia was able to sign the framework agreement last December between the military component, before its separation, and the civilian forces.
None of the mediation efforts led by African, Arab and international parties last month succeeded in achieving a cease-fire, and despite the announcement of reaching more than seven truces, the military clashes did not stop in Khartoum, and there were no regional powers that had the ability to exert real pressure to push for a halt. Shooting, including the United States, which spoke orally about the possibility of imposing sanctions on the party obstructing peace.
Eyewitnesses said that intensive air strikes carried out by the army forces targeted areas in the south of the capital, Khartoum, on Thursday, coinciding with the outbreak of clashes near an army camp in the framework of the conflict that caused the displacement of hundreds of thousands of people, and left the residents of Khartoum struggling for their lives in the midst of the fire. .
Witnesses heard air strikes by the army on RSF positions in residential neighborhoods south of Khartoum, including near Camp Taiba, while a police reserve force was fighting the RSF on the ground.
The Rapid Support Forces demanded the neutralization of the police forces and their non-involvement in military operations, but the army forces are determined to drag them to participate in the war. A video clip posted by the Rapid Support Forces on its Facebook and Twitter pages showed the effects of the army’s bombing of the East Nile Hospital and the damage to patients.
◙ The Rapid Support Forces demanded the neutralization of the police forces and their non-involvement in military operations, but the army forces are determined to drag them to participate in the war
The Sudanese political analyst, Muhammad Turshin, confirmed that the multiplicity of initiatives does not constitute a decisiveness towards reaching a permanent ceasefire, as the decisiveness is still in the hands of the operational situation on the ground, and that the Rapid Support Forces have a desire for that, but they fear that military aviation will be used excessively against them, and they see the lack of Guarantees of the commitment of an army that will not be eager to stop fighting if it does not achieve a decisive victory.
In a statement to The Arab Weekly, he stated that the historical precedents in Sudan indicate that the success of any foreign mediation is linked to the progress achieved by the government forces, and that international initiatives go through stages that begin with the rejection of the two parties before one party changes its position and then achieves a tactical change on the ground that allows the success of the mediation. , which has not yet been achieved.
And he stressed that a response had already taken place from both sides without achieving tangible results on the ground, and that any talks succeeded in achieving limited progress represented in working to integrate the Rapid Support Forces into the army and form a civilian government.
The proposed initiatives converge in their general essence, and it is difficult for any party to have special perceptions that it wants to implement in this atmosphere, and mediation efforts seek to reach a stable situation that leads to ending the transitional period and holding elections.
Most of the international forces involved in the issue of mediation have an unwavering desire for its success in a manner that preserves its effective influence in Sudan in the future, whether that is during the remainder of the transitional phase or through the presence of a new authority in the country after the elections, in a way that achieves its interests later, and takes into account all that surrounds it. Areas of importance that fall within the strategic scope.
The article first appeared on alarab-co-uk