Deal just to take pictures
April13, 2023
The results of the Saudi Jeddah talks between the delegations of the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces did not disappoint the expectations of some observers of the developments of the situation, as they achieved slight progress in the issue of calming down for humanitarian reasons after pressures exerted by the Saudi-American mediation on the two parties, and left the conflict open to various possibilities.
This comes as observers say that the Jeddah agreement focused on efforts to end the war, but seemed to absolve the parties of responsibility for targeting civilians without controls and prompting tens of thousands to flee outside Sudan.
The limited outcome of the Jeddah meetings is commensurate with the nature of the conflict between the army commanders, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces, Lieutenant General Muhammad Hamdan Dagalo (Hamditi), each of whom believes that he is able to resolve the conflict militarily, and that any concession means a political loss.
And every time Sudan witnessed civil conflict and regional wars, then talks and negotiations to reach peace, it was easier to go to the first path than the second, as battles erupt for a long time and the conflicting parties sit for a longer period to agree.
Sudan has known many cases of breaking political promises and covenants, which means that the initial agreement does not mean the end. The current conflict between Al-Burhan and Hamidti came after the signing of the framework agreement on the fifth of last December and the understanding to sign a final political agreement on the first of last April.
However, the prevarications of the head of the Sovereignty Council and the army commander led to an armed clash with the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, who feared a new military coup by the remnants of the regime of former President Omar al-Bashir and turning the tables on the political process.
What made the understanding difficult between the two delegations in Jeddah is that each party believes that the stage the situation has reached in the field will not allow reaping the fruits of its sacrifices.
The Rapid Support Forces consider the continued neutrality of regional and international powers a loss for Al-Burhan, who was waiting for broad support that would enable him to get rid of Hamidti, which has not happened so far.
This situation is getting more difficult with the inability of the Jeddah talks to achieve a breakthrough that paves the way for a real ceasefire, and their limitation to a calm for humanitarian reasons that enhances the challenges that the international community will face due to its inability to take deterrent measures against the two or one of the parties, and that the continuation of the battles could lead to severe regional repercussions. .
The Sudanese political analyst, Al-Shafi` Adeeb, said that the difficulty of reaching a lasting peace is due to the lack of an acceptable ground between the disputants, and the lack of a definition that everyone agrees on about a stable peace, which will not be agreed upon by the two conflicting parties.
He explained in a statement to The Arab Weekly that since the signing of the Naivasha Agreement (in 2005 between the central government and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement and its late founder, John Garang), the Sudanese have not been able to reach real peace, and peace agreements, which numbered about 15 agreements since the beginning of the new millennium, but they did not find a way to implement them on the ground, the latest of which is the Juba Peace Agreement in October 2020 (between the Sudanese government and the armed movements).
What made the understanding difficult is that each party believes that the stage the situation has reached in the field will not allow reaping the fruits of the sacrifices it has made.
Peace in Sudan is always confined to broad headlines that serve the interests of negotiators over power and wealth without much interest in ending crises that lead to wars in a comprehensive manner.
The Sudanese have been negotiating for peace for many years, and have not succeeded in reaching a stage of stability, although the signed agreements enjoy regional and international support and mediation, but they do not hold after marathon negotiations that may extend for long periods.
Al-Shafie Adeeb pointed out in his interview with The Arab Weekly that peace in Sudan is more difficult now, because the two sides represent one (military) component, and there are no indications that support the possibility of ending the ongoing war through a near peace, and what was signed in Jeddah is a non-binding declaration for the two parties, and it will be Sudan is facing a truce that will not be adhered to, like previous truces.
The so-called Declaration of Principles was signed in Jeddah early Friday morning, after talks that took place under joint Saudi-American auspices, which lasted for about a week. Neither party issued statements recognizing the agreement of principles until the middle of Friday.
The two sides did not show any willingness to be flexible in their rigid positions to end the fighting, since the outbreak of clashes in mid-April, which caused thousands of military and civilian casualties, paralyzed the country’s economy, stifled trade and exacerbated the humanitarian crisis.
He announced that the army and the Rapid Support Forces had signed a declaration regarding their commitment to protecting civilians in Sudan under international humanitarian law and human rights law in facilitating humanitarian work to meet the urgent needs of civilians.
The two delegations signed an agreement that included 7 items, most of which stipulated the protection of civilians, securing the passage of humanitarian and medical aid, and the withdrawal of military forces from hospitals.
Washington and Riyadh pushed the two sides to sign the Declaration of Principles to ease tensions in light of the continuing disagreement over reaching a broader ceasefire, and their divergence on other issues, which compounds the difficulty of fully complying with the principles contained in the Declaration.
Sudanese political analyst Abu al-Qasim Ibrahim Adam explained to The Arab Weekly that the presence of foreign hands tampering with the country makes achieving peace difficult, and what is happening in Khartoum is the most violent of the wars that took place in Sudan, and therefore peace will not be easy.
He pointed out that what Sudan is going through affects the stability of a group of neighboring countries, if there are external parties with hidden ambitions, and reaching peace depends on the greedy parties in Sudan realizing that the plot failed, and the direction will be for a ceasefire.
The Jeddah talks are expected to focus on reaching an agreement on an effective ceasefire for up to ten days, to facilitate these activities. Security measures include a ceasefire monitoring mechanism backed by Saudi Arabia, the United States and the international community.
The upcoming talks will deal with proposed arrangements for subsequent talks with Sudanese civil forces and regional and international partners for a permanent cessation of hostilities, in consultation with the two parties.
A statement from the US State Department said it was not possible to negotiate a ceasefire for several days initially, but UN Special Representative for Sudan Volker Peretz said it was expected later on Friday or Saturday
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