The Egyptian, Mahrous Muhammad, denied the National Institute for Astronomical Research in Egypt, the occurrence of an earthquake in the country last Friday, with strong disapproval and disapproval, because he and his family members felt it, and when he looked at what was published on social networking sites, he found many citizens talking about it, confirming the words of the Dutch scientist Frank Hogrebits, who predicted A series of earthquakes occurred in Egypt on February 25 and 26, and another in early March.

The father and his family live in a state of fear due to the expectation of a recurrence of the earthquake that hit the Egyptian capital in 1992, as he was then residing in a popular area in Cairo, and saw the effects of the destruction that struck hundreds of buildings and fears a repeat of the scene in front of the conflicting information issued by government institutions concerned with tracking earthquake activity in his country , despite the validity of the predictions of the Dutch scientist, who predicted devastating earthquakes in Syria and Turkey.

Mahrous belongs to the Egyptian segment that trusts the expectations of astrologers in general, and these are not few in Egypt, and their number, according to some estimates, exceeds 40 percent of the population, according to a study issued a year ago by the Al-Azhar Center for Astronomy.

They do not care about what the government says and do not concern them with official conversations and information, as they believe the interpretations of astrologers about the future because they believe that the government will not reveal the truth.

Many citizens suffer from a decrease in the level of optimism, in light of the difficult living and economic conditions, and the feeling that the disappointment in the past can be repeated later, which pushes some of the population towards the myth as a way of optimism or preparation for the upcoming difficult situations, because they believe that whoever reads The horoscope is not necessarily false, as it may be a myth and has the ability to read the future or warn of potential dangers that need to be avoided.

Seismophobia

A large segment of Egyptians dealt with the words of the Dutch scientist positively, as he was the one who believed his words about the earthquakes in Syria and Turkey, despite the reduction of many astronomers and geologists from it, and dealt with it as a coincidence, but once his expectations were proven correct, he turned to the Egyptians into a source of confidence, talking about Understanding and knowledge, no matter how some official institutions try to cast doubt on his predictions and deal with his interpretations as mere myths.

Specialists in social psychology believe that the infection of any society with “earthquake phobia” reflects excessive fear that is difficult to control, which makes it plan to build its life on a continuous state of insecurity about the future, which is the problem that struck Egyptian society when the 1992 earthquake occurred as a result of the psychological state. The bad thing for people is the horror of the disaster, but the dilemma is compounded now, as the citizen is frustrated because of his harsh conditions, which coincide with his fear of the danger of earthquakes.

Abbas Sharqi, a professor of geology at Cairo University, said that citizens’ fears of the possibility of legitimate earthquakes occur in any society, but that does not mean handing over minds to astrologers, but rather obtaining information from specialists, because there are those who play on people’s panic and seek to influence them in a way. Negative, and here the role of awareness and speed of response to everything that is raised, with the inevitability of dealing with official speech with credibility.

He added to The Arab Weekly that “some people believe the Dutch world more than astronomers and geologists is illogical, and astrologers or those with scientific predictions should not be treated with extreme sanctity, because this perpetuates panic and fear among people even if Egypt is safe from the dangers surrounding it.” other countries”.

He pointed out that the Egyptian government does not hide anything, and the information related to earthquakes has international dimensions, and the citizen is supposed to abide by the official information provided to him.

For a large segment of citizens, the words of the officials of the National Institute for Astronomical Research in Egypt have become mere statements directed not to spread terror among people under the pretext that economic and social conditions do not allow them to receive more messages of despair, and even if an earthquake is denied, they do not deal with official conversations with credibility. For the growing feeling that the government has a desire to reassure the street by any means.

Al-Masry Mahrous confirmed to The Arab Weekly that “although there are many who have fears of a recurrence of the devastating 1992 earthquake, there are those who hope that it will happen soon in order to escape from a miserable life. A meaning or a goal, because it is a category that lacks the minimum elements of happiness, so it is not concerned with continuing life on the margins of humanity, and it may see that death is more merciful to it.

The hard questions

The problem of some Egyptians with the government is that, in their view, it deliberately denies that the country is within the earthquake belt without speaking to them frankly and answering the difficult question: What if the predictions of the Dutch scientist were true and Egypt witnessed a devastating earthquake, is the state ready for that or not, and to what extent? To what extent can buildings that violate the standards of proper construction withstand moderate earthquakes?

A large segment of Egyptians base their fears of earthquakes on what happened in Turkey, after 134 contractors for buildings destroyed by the earthquake were accused, and some of them were arrested at airports. The Ministry of Justice also sent a letter to the Attorney General to establish offices to investigate a case known as earthquake crimes.

On the level of Egypt, in addition to the miserable living conditions, there are hundreds of thousands of people living in dilapidated houses, which lack the minimum elements of security and safety, and if the country is exposed to an earthquake of moderate strength, those buildings may collapse easily, in the face of incidents of corruption that occur from some neighborhood and housing employees. In granting licenses to build houses that do not meet the specifications, and there are terrifying numbers of building violations for which the government cannot find a solution.

According to official statistics issued by the Ministry of Local Development in Egypt, the total number of violating buildings from 2000 to 2017 is about 2.8 million out of a total of 13 million and 466 thousand buildings across the country, which means that the percentage of violating buildings reached 21 percent, which is an alarming reality. A disaster that government departments avoid addressing, given that this increases people’s fear in conjunction with the widespread frustration in the street.

The head of the Astronomy Institute in Egypt implicitly acknowledged that the biggest disaster for the country at the time of the 1992 earthquake was due to buildings that violate safety conditions, denying what he described as the astrology of the Dutch world, and that “Egypt will not witness devastating earthquakes in the coming years.”

Fear of the future

The situation settled in the family of the university student Amira Hamdi to reside years ago in the popular neighborhood of Al-Mataria in Cairo, but her father’s circumstances did not allow him to buy a property in a new residential tower, so he obtained an old housing unit in a building that was established fifty years ago under the rental system, which made her now live in a state of terror daily due to the information that you follow periodically about the future of earthquakes in Egypt, and the extent to which this is related to what happened in neighboring countries.

Neighborhood employees informed Amira’s father a year ago that the property in which the family lives violates building requirements, and is included in the scope of removals carried out by the government to eliminate slums due to their danger to people’s lives, but as a result of poor economic conditions, rationalization of government spending, and freezing of some national projects, removal procedures have been stalled. area and transferring its residents to a new city.

The girl told The Arab Weekly that she expects death at any moment, as danger surrounds the building that houses her family, and her father’s circumstances do not allow him to buy a new housing unit, which made her wait for death at any time, and when she spoke to her father about the need to move to a safe place away from Her dangerous residential area did not care about her words, considering that death may be easier for the poor than living amid these deadly conditions.

What terrifies Amira and her sisters is that she reads the statements of engineering experts about the expected risks of an earthquake in Egypt, and do not forget what the director of the Civil Engineering Research Center said when he talked about that in the event of a major earthquake, random or old buildings – dilapidated and in which the code is not available – will not remain. Al-Masry is in construction, and there must be an urgent intervention to review the safety of all these buildings in order to anticipate the danger that may affect them.

Gamal Froiz, a mental health consultant in Cairo, believes that the state of fear of the future is an unjustified feature of some Egyptians, and this causes a recurring feeling of unknown fate for complex reasons specific to each specific case. And other external ones linked to the general atmosphere, and they are present in any society.

He explained to The Arab Weekly that resorting to astrologers to predict the future about earthquakes reflects despair in the hearts of some people, and this is not necessarily evidence of a state of social and economic marginalization, as evidenced by the fact that there are investors who build their lives according to the words of fortune-tellers, and celebrities who deal with the same category, and therefore The whole issue is based on awareness and establishing official credibility in addressing people and reassuring them with practical moves.

The Egyptian government did not form engineering committees to pass through the areas classified as dangerous to study the condition of the buildings there, even if they are good and can withstand the force of earthquakes. The inability of people to move to new, safer cities, inhabited only by the rich.