Mission Impossible: Predicting The Oil Market


It’s been another very busy week for oil and gas markets as Putin threatened European gas imports, a storm knocked a major oil pipeline offline, and a Saudi oil terminal came under missile attack. Brent is back above $120 per barrel as bullish sentiment remains dominant, but plenty of bearish factors are still looming.

Oilprice Alert. Bullish factors in oil markets are piling up, from attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure to a potential end of Russian oil exports to Europe. As these geopolitical and fundamental factors combine, our analysts are working hard to keep GEA Members ahead of the news and ahead of the markets.

The beauty of the oil market lies in how unpredictable it is. The big story of this week – storms damaging export facilities of Kazakhstan’s flagship 1.2 million b/d CPC grade – was expected to drag oil prices down on Friday when loadings restarted. Just as it seemed that Brent could move lower from the $120 per barrel mark, the specter of Saudi supply disruption reappeared with an oil storage facility taking a missile hit in Jeddah, presumably from Yemen’s Houthi militias. Coupled with the dormant Iranian nuclear deal and incessant European quarreling about the right way to sanction Russia – not even a coal embargo could be agreed upon – predicting the movement of the oil market is only getting harder.

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