Conflict in Somalia
Military operations
The operation cut off the group from crucial supply routes and removed Al-Shabaab from its remaining coastal strongholds, including the port of Barawe, the group’s administrative headquarters 100 kilometres south of the capital Mogadishu. Other liberated towns included Tayeeglow, Bulomarer, and Kurtunwaarey.
These operations drove Al-Shabaab forces out of more than 20 towns across 10 districts in south-central Somalia—an estimated 68 per cent of the strategic locations Al-Shabaab had controlled in 2014.
AMISOM conducted operations against Al-Shabaab, taking over territory and the group’s sources of revenue.
These operations drove Al-Shabaab forces out of more than 20 towns across 10 districts in south-central Somalia—an estimated 68 per cent of the strategic locations Al-Shabaab had controlled in 2014. The operation cut off the group from crucial supply routes and removed Al-Shabaab from its remaining coastal strongholds, including the port of Barawe, the group’s administrative headquarters 100 kilometres south of the capital Mogadishu. Other liberated towns included Tayeeglow, Bulomarer, and Kurtunwaarey.
Delayed elections
While liberating these towns from Al Shabaab was critical, the tension between the president and the prime minister, and the conflict between Mogadishu and the Federal Member States has delayed the elections, diverted attention, resources, and political capital from the provision of services. Somalia conducts its elections indirectly; clan leaders select delegates to electoral colleges, who then choose the parliamentarians to fill the seats of the Lower House. Federal Member State assemblies elect Upper House parliamentarians, and the two houses elect the president who appoints the prime minister.
On 25 July 2020, parliament passed a vote against Somalia’s Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheire, accusing him of failing to turn the tide against insecurity and failing to provide a plan for universal suffrage. As required by the constitution, the president appointed a new prime minister on 18 September 2020 and on 24 September parliament unanimously approved the appointment of the new prime minister, Mohamed Hussein Roble. The honeymoon between the president and the prime minister did not last long. On 27 December 2021, the president suspended the prime minister over corruption allegations. The prime minister refused to resign, leading to tension on the streets of Mogadishu between their supporters, with security agencies and clan militias taking sides.
There has always been antagonism between the Federal Member States and Mogadishu, but it has grown sharper since President Mohammed Farmajo came to power in 2017. The tension between Mogadishu and the Federal Member States revolves around delineating power and resource sharing. However, elections require cooperation between the two levels of government. Due to the lack of cooperation, the November 2020 parliamentary election and the February 2021 presidential election were postponed.
The president’s actions have inflamed the country’s already fragile political and security situation. It galvanized the opposition, fractured the security agencies, widened the rift between the federal governments of Jubaland and Puntland, and ignited a bitter power struggle between the president and the prime minister.
On 12 April 2021, President Farmajo signed the bill passed by the Lower House extending his term and that of the parliament by two years. When Farmajo was elected, there was an understanding that the 2020 election would apply the principle of universal suffrage.
Troop Contributing
Countries Kenya and Ethiopia have been the two central countries in Somalia’s crisis. They have hosted peace conferences or undertaken military intervention both unilaterally and via the African Union (AU). Some of the outcomes of their actions have been inimical to Somalia’s long-term stability.
The electoral impasse was resolved on 9 January 2022, after leaders struck a deal to complete parliamentary elections by 25 February 2022.
Since coming to power in 2017, President Farmajo has prioritized bringing Jubaland under Mogadishu’s control. But he has faced resistance from Ahmed Mohamed Madobe, the current president of Jubaland. While Ethiopia was always wary of Kenya’s military intervention in Somalia, Abiy Ahmed’s accession to power in Ethiopia in April 2018 dramatically shifted Ethiopia’s Somalia policy. Abiy wanted to mend Ethiopia’s relations with regional countries.
Kenya and Ethiopia had a united goal regarding Somalia until Kenya sent its military to Somalia in November 2011. Central to their divergence was Jubaland and who controls it. Jubaland is the centre of gravity in Somalia; it is the breadbasket of the country and the location of the port of Kismayo, giving significant leverage to whoever controls it.
When Farmajo was elected, there was an understanding that the 2020 election would apply the principle of universal suffrage.
Financing
In January 2016, the EU cut AMISOM peacekeeper stipends by 20%, reducing each soldier’s payment from US$ 1,028 to US$822 per soldier per month. As a result, some troops have gone for months without pay.
